As the New York Mets (80-66) gear up to face the Philadelphia Phillies (88-58) in a crucial three-game series starting tonight at Citizens Bank Park, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET, fans can catch the action on MLB Network or ESPN+. In this NL East clash, every game is critical for the Mets, who currently hold a slim one-game lead over the Atlanta Braves (79-67) for the final NL wild-card spot. The Mets and Braves are set to square off in a pivotal three-game series from September 24-26, adding even more tension to this weekend’s matchups.
In this preview, we delve into the Mets vs Phillies showdown and assess the likely impact of the starting pitchers, José Quintana and Aaron Nola, while also providing our betting insights.
Mets vs Phillies Picks: Over 8.5 Runs (Play to 9)
For tonight’s game, our best bet is on the over, with the line set at 8.5. This line is available at FanDuel and other sportsbooks, so be sure to shop around for the best odds. Given the current form of both teams and the performance metrics of the starting pitchers, this game has the makings of a high-scoring affair.
Mets Betting Preview: Can Aaron Nola Be Contained?
José Quintana enters this game with a 4.09 ERA and a 4.64 xERA for the season. He has shown a knack for limiting Average Exit Velocity to 88 mph and maintaining an above-average Hard-Hit Rate. Although Quintana is proficient at keeping the ball on the ground (76th percentile), his strikeout rate is below 19% and he struggles with walks, holding a rate above 9%. Despite a solid outing against the Cincinnati Reds, Quintana’s recent performances suggest he might be in for some negative regression.
The Mets have posted a 106 wRC+, an 8% walk rate, and a 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the past month. Despite the absence of Jeff McNeil, who has been a significant loss, the Mets’ lineup remains capable of generating offense. They feature seven active hitters with a .320+ xwOBA, suggesting they can pose a challenge to Nola and potentially force him out of the game early.
On the bullpen front, the Mets have a 4.15 xFIP, a high 12.1% walk rate, and a 25.9% strikeout rate. While their walk rate is notably high, they do have five relievers with an xFIP below 4.00. However, with Philadelphia’s patient hitters, if Quintana struggles and exits early, the Mets’ bullpen could face a challenging night.
Phillies Betting Preview: Is a Big Night Ahead for the Offense?
Aaron Nola has posted a 3.41 ERA with a 3.85 xERA, but recent trends suggest he might be due for some negative regression. His ERA has ballooned to 5.06 in two September starts. Although his Average Exit Velocity is slightly above 88 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate is above average, his overall metrics are not overwhelmingly impressive. Nola’s ground-ball rate and strikeout rate are just above average, but he excels at limiting walks.
The Phillies’ offense has been exceptional against left-handed pitching, boasting a league-best 140 wRC+ over the past month. They also have a 9.4% walk rate and an 18.2% strikeout rate, making them particularly effective at getting on base and putting pressure on pitchers. With six hitters above a .310 xwOBA and several exceeding .400, Philadelphia’s lineup is well-positioned to exploit Quintana’s vulnerabilities.
In terms of relief pitching, the Phillies have a 3.81 xFIP, a 7.9% walk rate, and a 24.1% strikeout rate. Despite having five relievers with an xFIP under 4.00, the Phillies’ bullpen could still be tested if the Mets’ lineup performs well against both starters and relievers.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction: Expect Runs
Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and the potential for starting pitchers to struggle, betting on the over seems prudent. Both lineups, despite injuries to key players, are deep and capable of scoring runs. Philadelphia’s ability to walk and work deep counts could lead to high pitch counts for Quintana and the Mets’ bullpen. Conversely, if the Mets manage to get to Nola early, the Phillies’ bullpen advantage may be mitigated. Therefore, betting on the over from 8.5 to 9 runs appears to be the most favorable play for tonight’s game.
